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            疫情過后可能出現大繁榮,但我們需要加強投資

            疫情過后可能出現大繁榮,但我們需要加強投資

            JOHN DILULLO 2022-08-04
            新冠疫情和其他危機刺激了新的思考,提高了生產率,促進了對能帶來財富的技術的應用。

            對迫在眉睫的經濟衰退的擔憂,給醫學和科技方面近期取得的突破的巨大潛力蒙上了陰影。攝影:SPENCER PLATT —— 蓋蒂圖片社

            從許多方面來看,最近的日子可以說是非常悲慘。每一個新聞周期過后,世界似乎都在變得愈加黑暗。疫情讓我們對親人的安危提心吊膽。隔離政策殘忍地將我們孤立起來。然后是供應短缺。

            再加上2022年,金融市場陷入混亂,在過去六個月給投資者造成的損失,超過了過去50年投資者在任何六個月的損失規模。

            在這種背景下,許多商人變得畏手畏腳,財務上更加保守,但我是一頭憤怒的公牛。

            新冠疫情并沒有摧毀我們社會的基本結構,而是彰顯了人類精神的韌性和我們的適應能力。我們在適應的過程中掌握了新的力量。我們挑戰了每一種組織職能、每一種習慣和每一種神秘的社會習俗。我們對每一個研發項目、每一筆傳統投資和每一個傳統的業務流程進行合力改革。

            我們在疫情期間變得更加高效。這一點無可爭議:美國的經濟規模超過了疫情之前的水平,盡管勞動者人數減少了近300萬。

            新冠疫情和其他危機刺激了新的思考,提高了生產率,并促使人們采用能創造財富的技術。

            新冠肺炎并不是人類第一次經歷的全球大流行病。在有文獻記載的人類歷史上,已經發生過13次全球疫情,每次都造成超過百萬人死亡。其中一次與新冠疫情可怕地相似,那就是1918年的西班牙流感疫情。

            最早有記錄的西班牙流感病例在當年3月發現于美國,但很快法國、德國和英國也出現了病例。在六個月內,病毒席卷了整個世界。兩年后,全球近三分之一人口被感染,約有5,000萬人死亡。

            所有疫情最終都會結束。病毒可能會變異,變得高度致命,結果殺死了宿主導致它們自己滅絕,也可能經過變異后具有更強傳染性,導致人類最終產生了免疫力。

            西班牙流感與新冠之間可怕的相似性,為我們預測未來十年提供了寶貴的機會。兩種病毒的傳染性幾乎相同。R0值是代表一種病毒傳播力的數字指標。新冠和西班牙流感的R0值都約為1.8,這意味著平均每位感染者會傳染1.8人。

            兩種病毒的致死率同樣為2%左右。這兩次疫情都經歷了多輪,在全球大多數地區至少出現了三次疫情結束的假象。

            社會對兩種疾病的反應也幾乎相同。人們被隔離,戴上口罩,高溫蒸煮床單。人們在戶外用餐,公共場合被關閉,學校停課,教堂關閉,人們失去工作,無力支付租金和抵押貸款,公共救助大幅增加,政府債務急速膨脹。人們將這些措施政治化,到處爆發抗議示威。

            最有趣的是西班牙流感疫情結束之后所發生的事情。

            西班牙流感于1920年結束,持續了幾乎整整兩年。之后,美國經歷了人類歷史上最偉大的繁榮時期。那段時間被稱為“咆哮的二十年代”。這個稱號名副其實。

            人們擺脫了西班牙流感的陰影,開始舉辦派對,縱情歌舞和旅游。爵士樂流行起來,時尚業爆炸式增長,建筑業繁榮發展。

            在社會上一種進步思潮興起,德國、英國、荷蘭和美國在疫情結束24個月內,終于授予女性投票權。

            推動這種變化的是一種現代化和進步潮流,它們最終讓我們步入了現代社會。

            在1920年代,汽車行業趨于成熟。1920年,全球只有50萬輛汽車上路。但在咆哮的二十年代,汽車產量達到2,500萬輛。

            這與現代的情況驚人地相似。2020年,全球公路上行駛的電動汽車不足100萬輛。今年,電動汽車銷量將達到三百萬輛,到2030年,將有5,000萬輛新電動汽車上路。

            1925年,電視問世。今天我們擁有元宇宙。

            1927年,查爾斯·林德伯格進行了首次單人跨大西洋飛行?,F在每天有600萬人乘坐飛機!事實上,每天任意時刻都有超過10萬人在空中飛來飛去。但2021年,全世界首次開始真正將平民送入太空。我們甚至真得將“柯克船長”送入低地球軌道。

            1928年,亞歷山大·弗萊明發明了盤尼西林,這種創新藥物自問世以來已經拯救了2億人的生命。2020年,對癌癥患者的首批基因編輯試驗獲得批準,而且先進的信使核糖核酸編輯技術使新冠疫苗快速問世。

            在西班牙流感結束后的八年里,金融市場反彈,股價上漲超過400%。全世界創造了大量財富,生活水平大幅提升。

            市場因為利率、國際緊張局勢、大宗商品沖擊和其他一千多個變量的影響出現波動,但在2020年代,我們擁有生氣勃勃的勞動力大軍,他們在技術支持下成長起來,并且最近經過交叉培訓,與他們相比,這些因素無足輕重。歷史經驗證明,我們只有一個選擇:持續投資,除非投資產生負面影響。

            本文作者約翰·狄璐羅現任Forcepoint首席營收官,負責促進公司的全球銷售,推動業務開發部門加快全球客戶采用和部署Forcepoint解決方案。

            Fortune.com上發表的評論文章中表達的觀點,僅代表作者本人的觀點,不能代表《財富》雜志的觀點和信仰。(財富中文網)

            譯者:劉進龍

            審校:汪皓

            對迫在眉睫的經濟衰退的擔憂,給醫學和科技方面近期取得的突破的巨大潛力蒙上了陰影。攝影:SPENCER PLATT —— 蓋蒂圖片社

            從許多方面來看,最近的日子可以說是非常悲慘。每一個新聞周期過后,世界似乎都在變得愈加黑暗。疫情讓我們對親人的安危提心吊膽。隔離政策殘忍地將我們孤立起來。然后是供應短缺。

            再加上2022年,金融市場陷入混亂,在過去六個月給投資者造成的損失,超過了過去50年投資者在任何六個月的損失規模。

            在這種背景下,許多商人變得畏手畏腳,財務上更加保守,但我是一頭憤怒的公牛。

            新冠疫情并沒有摧毀我們社會的基本結構,而是彰顯了人類精神的韌性和我們的適應能力。我們在適應的過程中掌握了新的力量。我們挑戰了每一種組織職能、每一種習慣和每一種神秘的社會習俗。我們對每一個研發項目、每一筆傳統投資和每一個傳統的業務流程進行合力改革。

            我們在疫情期間變得更加高效。這一點無可爭議:美國的經濟規模超過了疫情之前的水平,盡管勞動者人數減少了近300萬。

            新冠疫情和其他危機刺激了新的思考,提高了生產率,并促使人們采用能創造財富的技術。

            新冠肺炎并不是人類第一次經歷的全球大流行病。在有文獻記載的人類歷史上,已經發生過13次全球疫情,每次都造成超過百萬人死亡。其中一次與新冠疫情可怕地相似,那就是1918年的西班牙流感疫情。

            最早有記錄的西班牙流感病例在當年3月發現于美國,但很快法國、德國和英國也出現了病例。在六個月內,病毒席卷了整個世界。兩年后,全球近三分之一人口被感染,約有5,000萬人死亡。

            所有疫情最終都會結束。病毒可能會變異,變得高度致命,結果殺死了宿主導致它們自己滅絕,也可能經過變異后具有更強傳染性,導致人類最終產生了免疫力。

            西班牙流感與新冠之間可怕的相似性,為我們預測未來十年提供了寶貴的機會。兩種病毒的傳染性幾乎相同。R0值是代表一種病毒傳播力的數字指標。新冠和西班牙流感的R0值都約為1.8,這意味著平均每位感染者會傳染1.8人。

            兩種病毒的致死率同樣為2%左右。這兩次疫情都經歷了多輪,在全球大多數地區至少出現了三次疫情結束的假象。

            社會對兩種疾病的反應也幾乎相同。人們被隔離,戴上口罩,高溫蒸煮床單。人們在戶外用餐,公共場合被關閉,學校停課,教堂關閉,人們失去工作,無力支付租金和抵押貸款,公共救助大幅增加,政府債務急速膨脹。人們將這些措施政治化,到處爆發抗議示威。

            最有趣的是西班牙流感疫情結束之后所發生的事情。

            西班牙流感于1920年結束,持續了幾乎整整兩年。之后,美國經歷了人類歷史上最偉大的繁榮時期。那段時間被稱為“咆哮的二十年代”。這個稱號名副其實。

            人們擺脫了西班牙流感的陰影,開始舉辦派對,縱情歌舞和旅游。爵士樂流行起來,時尚業爆炸式增長,建筑業繁榮發展。

            在社會上一種進步思潮興起,德國、英國、荷蘭和美國在疫情結束24個月內,終于授予女性投票權。

            推動這種變化的是一種現代化和進步潮流,它們最終讓我們步入了現代社會。

            在1920年代,汽車行業趨于成熟。1920年,全球只有50萬輛汽車上路。但在咆哮的二十年代,汽車產量達到2,500萬輛。

            這與現代的情況驚人地相似。2020年,全球公路上行駛的電動汽車不足100萬輛。今年,電動汽車銷量將達到三百萬輛,到2030年,將有5,000萬輛新電動汽車上路。

            1925年,電視問世。今天我們擁有元宇宙。

            1927年,查爾斯·林德伯格進行了首次單人跨大西洋飛行?,F在每天有600萬人乘坐飛機!事實上,每天任意時刻都有超過10萬人在空中飛來飛去。但2021年,全世界首次開始真正將平民送入太空。我們甚至真得將“柯克船長”送入低地球軌道。

            1928年,亞歷山大·弗萊明發明了盤尼西林,這種創新藥物自問世以來已經拯救了2億人的生命。2020年,對癌癥患者的首批基因編輯試驗獲得批準,而且先進的信使核糖核酸編輯技術使新冠疫苗快速問世。

            在西班牙流感結束后的八年里,金融市場反彈,股價上漲超過400%。全世界創造了大量財富,生活水平大幅提升。

            市場因為利率、國際緊張局勢、大宗商品沖擊和其他一千多個變量的影響出現波動,但在2020年代,我們擁有生氣勃勃的勞動力大軍,他們在技術支持下成長起來,并且最近經過交叉培訓,與他們相比,這些因素無足輕重。歷史經驗證明,我們只有一個選擇:持續投資,除非投資產生負面影響。

            本文作者約翰·狄璐羅現任Forcepoint首席營收官,負責促進公司的全球銷售,推動業務開發部門加快全球客戶采用和部署Forcepoint解決方案。

            Fortune.com上發表的評論文章中表達的觀點,僅代表作者本人的觀點,不能代表《財富》雜志的觀點和信仰。(財富中文網)

            譯者:劉進龍

            審校:汪皓

            In many respects, recent history has been perfectly miserable. With every news cycle, the world seems to be getting darker and darker. The pandemic has made us worry about loved ones. The quarantines were brutally isolating. Then came the shortages.

            To top it all off, the financial markets went haywire in 2022, destroying more wealth in the past six months than in any other six-month period in the last 50 years.

            Against this backdrop, many businesspeople have become sheepish and financially conservative–but I am a raging bull.

            COVID-19 did not destroy the fabric of our society–but it did illuminate the tenacity of the human spirit and our ability to adapt. In the process of adapting, we built new muscles. We challenged every organizational function, every habit, and every arcane social custom. We rationalized every skunkworks project, every legacy investment, and every heritage business process.

            We became more efficient during the pandemic. This is irrefutable: The U.S. economy is larger than it was pre-pandemic, even as it operates with nearly 3 million fewer workers.

            Pandemics and other crises stimulate new thinking, unlock productivity, and spur the adoption of wealth-creating technologies.

            COVID-19 was not the world’s first global pandemic. In recorded human history, there have been 13 pandemics that each claimed more than a million lives. One pandemic, in particular, is eerily similar to COVID-19: the 1918 Spanish Flu.

            The earliest documented case of the Spanish Flu was recorded in March of that year in the U.S. But soon cases would be recorded in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Within six months the entire world would be utterly engulfed by the virus. Two years later, nearly a third of the global population was infected and almost 50 million souls had perished.

            All pandemics come to an end. They either mutate and become so deadly they burn themselves out by killing their hosts or they mutate and become so contagious that the population ultimately develops immunity.

            The uncanny similarities between the Spanish Flu and COVID-19 provide us an invaluable glimpse into the decade that lies ahead. The infectiousness of both diseases was nearly identical. The R0 value is a numerically derived measure of the transmissibility of a disease. COVID-19 and the Spanish Flu both share an R0?of approximately 1.8, meaning that on average just about every person that caught either disease infected another 1.8 people.

            Case fatality rates were also nearly identical at about two percent. Both diseases also curiously progressed in waves, signaling false endings at least three times in most parts of the world.

            The societal response to both diseases was nearly identical too. People were quarantined, put on masks, and boiled sheets. they ate outdoors, public venues were closed, schools were closed, churches were closed, people lost jobs, rent and mortgages went unpaid, public assistance exploded, and government debts ballooned. People politicized all of those actions as well and protests broke out.

            It’s what happened after the Spanish Flu that’s most interesting.

            The Spanish Flu ended in 1920, almost exactly two years after it began, and in its wake, the U.S. enjoyed perhaps the greatest era of prosperity in human history. The period was coined the “Roarin’ 20s”. And “roared” they did.

            People shook off the gloom of the Spanish Flu and began partying and dancing and singing and traveling. Jazz became popular, fashion exploded, and construction boomed.

            Socially, a progressive vibe captured the imagination of the world with Germany, the U.K., the Netherlands, and the U.S. all finally affording women the right to vote within 24 months of the pandemic’s end.

            Underlying all this change was a wave of modernity and progress that propelled us into modernity.

            It was during the 1920s that the automobile industry came of age. In 1920 there were only 500,000 automobiles on the road globally. During the Roaring 20s, 25 million cars would be produced.

            The congruence with modern times is striking. In 2020, there were less than 1 million EVs on the road. This year, three million EVs will be sold–and the world could add as many as 50 million to the roads by 2030.

            In 1925, the television was invented. Today, we have the metaverse.

            In 1927 Charles Lindberg piloted the first solo transatlantic flight. Today, 6 million people get in a plane every single day! In fact, at any moment of any day, there are more than 100,000 people in the skies above. But it was 2021 when the world first started putting civilians into space in earnest. We even put Captain Kirk into low-earth orbit, for real.

            In 1928 Alexander Fleming invented penicillin–an innovation that has saved 200 million lives since its introduction. In 2020, the first trials of gene editing for cancer patients were approved and cutting-edge Messenger RNA editing led to the lightning-fast development of a COVID vaccine.

            In the eight years immediately following the Spanish Flu, financial markets rallied and share prices grew more than 400%. Immense wealth was created and standards of living around the world leaped forward.

            Markets are moved by interest rates, world tensions, commodity shocks, and a thousand other variables–but all these factors pale in importance when compared to the juggernaut that the newly invigorated, technology-enabled, and recently cross-trained workforce of the 2020s has become. A student of history has but one option: Invest until it hurts.

            John DiLullo is Chief Revenue Officer at Forcepoint, where he is responsible for driving the company’s worldwide sales and business development organizations to accelerate customer adoption and deployment of Forcepoint solutions globally.

            The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

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